687
FXUS61 KOKX 080247
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weakens as a frontal system approaches mid to late next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Made low temperatures a MAV/MET MOS blend and slightly lowered
hourly temperatures to better match observed trends. Temperature
already down into the 50s for some parts of Long Island,
exhibiting even lower temperatures than the 5th percentile of
the NBM with its low temperature forecast.
High pressure will remain in control overnight, providing dry
conditions and clear skies. In combination with the light winds
overnight, radiational cooling is expected across the outlying
areas and NBM is too warm for most locations, so went with the
more reliable MAV/MET MOS blend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure stretching in from the east and continuing
to be in control, a general persistence forecast was followed
for Friday through Saturday night with high pressure. Little in
the way of clouds through the period with highs generally in
the 80s and dew points in the 50s to low 60s. Radiational
cooling for Friday night for the usual spots and MAV/MET MOS
blend was used in the outlying areas. This may be the case
Saturday night as well, however with uncertainty with any clouds
and wind speeds this far out, followed NBM for Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main change in the extended is to delay a weakening cold
front approaching the area for the middle of next week. In fact,
with the upper air pattern trending slower with the ridge
across the east, it`s quite possible the front will continue to
slow down or even just wash out before getting here. The reason
for the slowdown partly resides on an area of low pressure
cutting off over the western Atlantic, creating a block and
amplifying the upstream ridge across the eastern third of the
country. The overall trend in the globals the last 24h has been
slower. This is reflected in the NBM guidance which was closely
followed.
In addition, surface low pressure east of the Carolinas is
being monitored by NHC. There is a low probability for tropical
development at this time. This low interacts and gets absorbed
by the aforementioned upper trough/low. Model consensus keeps
the system well east of the area.
What this means for us is increasing heat and humidity through
the period with heat indices potentially meeting heat advisory
criteria for parts of the area Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures during this time will average 5-10 degrees above
normal.
A late day shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly NW of NYC
Wednesday/Thursday afternoon/evening. Highs will generally be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the Atlantic facing
beaches with lows in the 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The center of high pressure will slowly move farther east of
the region through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds generally near 5 kts or less through early Friday. Winds
then return to near 10-12 kt flow by Friday afternoon before
subsiding once again Friday evening.
Wind direction becoming variable through early Friday. Then
winds become E-SE for the rest of Friday with more variable
direction Friday evening for some terminals.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts to 15-20 kt possible on Friday, especially in
the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night - Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday night. Winds
will generally remain weak through the weekend.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue into early next
week. Winds will generally remain weak through the weekend. NHC
is monitoring an area for potential tropical cyclone development.
The probability of development is low at this time (see NHC
website). Model consensus takes this low well east of the
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A continued easterly swell of 3-4ft 7-8s will produce a moderate
risk for rip currents into Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/MW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...