422
FXUS61 KOKX 081947
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
347 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, then
slowly weakens as a frontal system approaches mid to late next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will be centered nearby Nova Scotia through the
period. This will provide us with dry weather with little in the way
of cloud cover. Just like yesterday, expect high temperatures
generally around 80 with an easterly wind. Comfortable dewpoints for
this time of the year too - mostly in the 50s. For tonight, used the
more reliable MAV/MET MOS blend for areas that usually see the
strongest radiational cooling, considering a mostly clear sky and
light to calm winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure remains in control through the period, stretching in
from east. Expecting a continuation of little cloud cover through
the period, although Saturday afternoon could possibly feature a
broken high/thin cirrus deck shifting through the region. Saturday
should be slightly warmer than today, but still with comfortable
dewpoints. High temperatures rise for Sunday with highs mostly in
the middle and upper 80s and conditions maybe starting to feel a
little muggy. Radiational cooling for the usual spots for both
Saturday and Sunday night with MAV/MET MOS blend used in those
locations.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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No major changes made to the long term forecast.

A weakening cold front approaches the area for the middle of
next week. In fact, with the upper air pattern trending slower
with the ridge across the east, it`s quite possible the front
will continue to slow down or even just wash out before getting
here. The reason for the slowdown partly resides on an area of
low pressure cutting off over the western Atlantic, creating a
block and amplifying the upstream ridge across the eastern third
of the country. The overall trend in the globals the last 24-36h
has been slower. This is reflected in the NBM guidance which was
closely followed.

In addition, surface low pressure east of the Carolinas is
being monitored by NHC. There is a low probability for tropical
development at this time. This low interacts and gets absorbed
by the aforementioned upper trough/low. Model consensus keeps
the system well east of the area.

What this means for us is increasing heat and humidity through
the period with heat indices potentially meeting heat advisory
criteria for parts of the area Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures during this time will average 5-10 degrees above
normal.

A late day shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly NW of NYC
Wednesday/Thursday afternoon/evening. Highs will generally be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the Atlantic facing
beaches with lows in the 60s and lower 70s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in
control.

Local sea breezes have developed across the coastal terminals,
shifting winds to more of a S to SSE direction. Away from the
coast, winds should be more of a SE direction. Winds speeds will
be around 10 kt or less. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kt are
possible through the remainder of the afternoon.


   NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

S to SSE winds across these terminals as sea breezes move
through. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible this
afternoon through the remainder of the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday - Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue into early next
week. Winds will generally remain weak through this period. NHC
is monitoring an area for potential tropical cyclone
development. The probability of development is low at this time
(see NHC website). Model consensus takes this low well east of
the waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A continued easterly swell of 3-4ft at 8-9s should produce a
widespread moderate risk for rip currents today. Similar, but at
least slightly improving conditions are anticipated for Sunday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...