128
FXUS61 KOKX 091126
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
726 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. The
high will then slowly weaken as a frontal system approaches mid
to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Elongated E-W high pressure extending from Nova Scotia to the
Middle Atlantic will remain in control through tonight. Heights
aloft will slowly rise as ridging builds over the eastern US.
Mostly clear conditions are expected through tonight.
Temperatures should end up a few degrees warmer than those
observed on Friday with highs in the lower 80s for most spots
and middle 80s for the warmer locations in NE NJ and Lower
Hudson Valley. Another cool night is in store with a continued
dry air mass, mostly clear skies, and light winds. Temperatures
look to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s for most and middle
60s in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A high amplitude ridge (+2 to +3SD) over the eastern third of
the country will be the main weather feature into early next
week. Surface high pressure over the area on Sunday will shift
offshore and become more of a Bermuda high pressure system
Monday into Monday night.
Temperatures will trend warmer both Sunday and Monday. The latest
model consensus blend looks good with highs in the middle to upper
80s for most and low 90s in NE NJ on Sunday. Monday is looking to
feature more widespread low 90s away from the immediate coast with
middle to upper 80s near the coast due to the onshore flow
influence. The air mass will remain very dry with only a few clouds
each day. Dew points will be low enough (mid/upper 50s to low 60s)
to keep heat indices close to air actual air temperatures and
prevent them from getting higher than lower 90s. Nighttime
temperatures also gradually increase each night with patchy fog
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term.
The high amplitude ridge in place across the eastern third of the
country will gradually break down through the period with the
westerlies sending a cold front through late Thursday into Friday.
Expect mainly dry conditions with increasing heat and humidity
Tuesday and Wednesday. Often, the NBM can be too high with dew
points and over the last couple of days it has adjusted dew points
slightly downward Tuesday. This likely due to its bias correction,
especially from recent performance. Regardless, there still remains
a chance for heat indices to meet heat advisory criteria,
specifically for the criteria of two consecutive day at 95 to 99.
The hottest day currently looks to occur on Wednesday with potential
of it continuing into Thursday. However, the areal coverage of 95-99
heat indices has been decreasing for Thursday. Temperatures during
this time will average 5-10 degrees above normal.
A late day shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly NW of NYC
Wednesday-Friday afternoons/evenings. Highs will generally be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s away from the Atlantic facing beaches with
lows in the 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure remaining in control.
Light NE to E winds to start, becoming SE at 10 kt or less from
late morning into the afternoon. Light and variable winds for
tonight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Today-Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR with a late day thunderstorm and sub-VFR
possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure in control will lead to conditions below SCA
levels through the middle of next week. A weak area of low
pressure well offshore may continue to bring an E swell into
early next week, but seas will remain below 5 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Easterly swells continue this weekend, but may start to subside
a bit on Sunday. A moderate rip current risk continues today,
but falls to low on Sunday with the subsiding swell.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JC