561
FXUS61 KOKX 091956
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. The
high will then slowly weaken over the region as a frontal system
approaches mid week. The front will move through late in the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Elongated E-W high pressure extending from Nova Scotia to the
Mid Atlantic will remain in control. Heights aloft will slowly
rise as ridging builds over the eastern US.
Mostly clear conditions expected. Based on recent trends with
the current air mass forecast low temps 1-2 degrees below a
MAV/MET blend which is lower than NBM. This yields lows in the
60s in the NYC metro area, western Long Island, and most
immediate coastal locations. Elsewhere lows should be in the
50s, but may fall into the upper 40s across the Long Island Pine
Barrens. River valley fog is again likely, and some patchy
ground fog is also possible outside the NYC metro area where
sfc dewpoint depressions will be low and winds light.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A high amplitude ridge (+2 to +3SD) over the eastern third of
the country will be the main weather feature. Surface high
pressure over the area Sunday morning will begin to drift
south/offshore Sunday afternoon and become more of a Bermuda
high early next week.
High temps have been running close to or a shade higher than a
MAV/MET blend, so took the higher of that and the NBM for
Sunday, with near 90 in most of NE NJ and well into the 80s
most elsewhere. Heat index values will be close to actual temps
since dewpoints will not be all that high, from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.
Low temps Sunday night should range from near 70 in midtown NYC,
to the mid/upper 50s well inland and across the Long Island
Pine Barrens region. River valley fog is again likely, with
patchy fog outside the NYC metro area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The high amplitude ridge in place across the Northeast US Monday
will gradually break down through the period with the
westerlies sending a cold front through late Thursday into
Friday.
Expect mainly dry conditions with increasing heat and humidity
Tuesday and Wednesday. There remains a chance for heat indices
to meet heat advisory criteria, specifically for the criteria of
two consecutive day at 95 to 99. The warmest day currently
looks to occur on Wednesday with the potential of it continuing
into Thursday. However, the areal coverage of 95-99 heat indices
has been decreasing for Thursday and the best chances for a
2-day heat advisory right now looks limited to NE NJ and
possibly NYC, but even NYC looks marginal at this point.
Temperatures during this time will average 5-10 degrees above
normal.
A late day shower or thunderstorm is possible mainly NW of NYC
Wednesday-Friday afternoons/evenings associated with the frontal
boundary. Additionally, with the increase in low level
moisture, patchy fog is possible overnight Monday night through
Wednesday night across outlying areas.
Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from
the Atlantic facing beaches with lows in the 60s and lower
70s. Slightly lower temperatures expected by next Friday and
Saturday with the passage of the cold front, more closer to
normal for this time of year. Slightly lower humidity levels as
well, but this far out, could see more in the way of relief as
the NBM may be overdoing the dew points.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains through the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Some
terminals outside of NYC might have a few hours of fog
overnight into early Sunday morning with potential MVFR to IFR
visibility around 7-12Z Sunday. Not enough confidence to put
this in TAFs just yet.
Winds will be less than 10 kts during the TAF period. Mostly
southerly flow expected during the day with more variable
direction at night into early morning hours.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR.
Sunday night: Mainly VFR but possible fog with MVFR/IFR vsby.
Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Wednesday: Possible MVFR or lower with possible showers and
thunderstorms afternoon into night.
Thursday: MVFR possible with possible showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure in control will lead to conditions below SCA
levels. A weak area of low pressure well offshore may continue
to bring an E swell into early next week, but seas will remain
below 5 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With reports of moderate to strong rip currents received earlier today
and 2 to 3 ft E to ESE swells at 7 to 9 seconds expected through
Monday, there will be a moderate risk of rip currents for both Sunday
and Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for
NYZ069>075-176-178.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JP