415
FXUS61 KOKX 101544
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1144 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through early this week.
The high will then slowly weaken over the region as a frontal
system approaches mid week. The front will move through late in
the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The temperatures were running were a few degrees higher than
forecast, especially for Long Island, this morning. Hourly and
high temperatures adjusted accordingly. Dewpoints were also
modified slightly to better match with observed trends. Sky
conditions still mostly sunny. No other changes made to the
forecast database.
High pressure will remain in over the area through tonight.
Heights aloft will continue to rise as a high amplitude ridge
builds over the eastern US.
Mostly clear conditions are expected through tonight. Slight
adjustments have been made to lower dew points a few degrees
this afternoon as the NBM has been running a bit high the last
few days, especially in areas that typically lower in the
afternoon with mixing. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to
rise compared to recent days with highs reaching the middle to
upper 80s for much of the area. A few of the typical warm spots
in NE NJ reach around 90 degrees.
Made some slight adjustments to NBM low temperatures for
tonight, especially across outlying areas and the Long Island
Pine Barrens. These areas have been running several degrees
lower the last few nights compared to the NBM. A MAV/MET blend
looked more reasonable given recent these trends. Lows will
range from the upper 50s for outlying areas and the Long Island
Pine Barrens to the lower and middle 60s elsewhere. The NYC
metro may not fall below the upper 60s. Some patchy river valley
fog is possible late tonight/early Monday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The high amplitude ridge will remain in place through Tuesday.
Surface high pressure drifts offshore on Monday and becomes more
of a Bermuda high by Tuesday. This pattern will continue the
trend of warmer temperatures and slightly higher humidity levels
each day. A few clouds anticipated each day but overall skies
will remain mostly clear.
NBM high temperatures look reasonable both Monday and Tuesday.
Much of the area will see highs in the upper 80s on Monday with
the warmest spots reaching the low 90s. Immediate coastal
locations may remain in the lower to middle 80s with onshore
flow influence. Highs on Tuesday looks to reach the upper 80s
and lower 90s for much of the area with again coastal locations
slightly cooler. Adjusted NBM dew points down slightly Monday
afternoon given recent trends and this allows heat indices on
Monday to be at or slightly below air temperatures. Dew points
should begin rising on Tuesday but still end up in the lower to
middle 60s in the afternoon. Max heat indices should end up in
the upper 80s and lower 90s, with a few isolated spots
potentially coming close to 95.
Lows each night trend warmer with temperatures Tuesday night in the
middle to upper 60s for most and lower 70s in the urban areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes were made with this update.
The high amplitude ridge will break down Wednesday into Thursday
as an upper trough slides across southeastern Canada. This will
allow a cold front to approach late Wednesday and move across
the area on Thursday. The front should settle south and east of
the area on Friday. A weak upper trough may then linger over the
region into early next weekend.
Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week with
temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s with some middle 90s in
NE NJ. Higher humidity levels will likely yield heat indices in the
lower to middle 90s. Potential continues to exist for heat indices
to reach 95-99 in the warmest spots of NE NJ, NYC metro, Lower
Hudson Valley, and portions of S CT. The latest NBM has trended
slightly cooler on Thursday with dew points also a few degrees
lower. This trend has yielded lower max heat indices with much of
the area only peaking in the low 90s. Reaching the two day heat
advisory criteria may be difficult if this trend persists.
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday and Thursday. The chance is lower on Friday as the front
pushes south and east of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure in control. Winds should become S around
10 kt this afternoon, a little stronger at KJFK. Light SW winds
follow for tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected..
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: A late day or evening tstm with possible brief MVFR
or lower cond, mainly just W of the NYC metros.
Thursday: Chance of late afternoon/early evening tstms with
possible MVFR or lower cond.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will lead to conditions below SCA levels through
the middle of the week. A weak area of low pressure well
offshore may continue to bring an E swell the next several days,
but seas will remain below 5 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk remains through Monday evening at
Ocean beaches due to continued E-ESE swells with around 3 ft
waves and a 7-9 second period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
176-178.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DS
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JC/BG
MARINE...JP/DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...