308
FXUS61 KOKX 152119
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
519 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build in through tonight, then slide off
the coast on Saturday. A weak cold front will approach on Sunday,
pass through Sunday night. High pressure from Southeast Canada
will sink into New England and the Northeast US through midweek
pushing a backdoor cold front through. Weak disturbances may
approach from the west but high pressure is expected to dominate
through much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure continues to build into the area from SE Canada at the
surface into tonight. However, increasing clouds are expected
overnight due to upper-level flow changing with a weak embedded
shortwave. Mainly dry conditions anticipated through tonight,
though. Lows will be in the low 70s to mid 60s. Patchy fog will once
again be a possibility for interior locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure moves offshore on Saturday as heights aloft
gradually drop with a passing shortwave. This, combined with onshore
flow, will lead to slightly cooler highs on Saturday in the low/mid
80s. The shortwave may enable a few isolated showers/storms well NW
of NYC in the interior in the afternoon/evening.
Saturday night, as the shortwave exits, mostly clear skies make
their return with another chance for patchy fog, this time just for
far eastern locations. Lows Saturday night will be in the mid 60s to
low 70s.
A cold front will approach the area on Sunday as high pressure
pushes farther offshore. This will lead to warm & humid air getting
advected in from SW flow. This, in combination with lift from the
front, should allow for isolated to spotty showers/thunderstorms to
develop Saturday afternoon & evening. For now, not overly optimistic
on POP coverage. However, 12Z guidance shows potential for warmer,
more unstable air in areas N&W of NYC with potential MUCAPE values
between 1,500-2,500 J/kg. This in combination with 25-35 kt 0-6 km
Bulk Shear, could potentially see isolated instances of strong to
damaging wind gusts. However, not all guidance is consistent
with higher shear values. CSU-MLP & CIPS Analog-Based probs
continue to indicate a possible marginal severe risk. One thing
that looks to be fighting against chances for severe weather is
poor mid-level lapse rates. Confidence, one way or the other,
should increase as the event falls within the timeframe of more
CAMs.
The front exits south Sunday night with a ridge gradually building
in from the west, leading to dry conditions.
Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s at the coast to the
low 90s for western interior locations and the NYC metro. Lows
Sunday night will be in the mid to upper 60s at the coast with
northern interior areas cooler, closer to 60.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Monday and through much of the first half of next week, the area
will be positioned between a longwave ridge over much of the country
with a trough over extreme southeastern Canada and the Canadian
Maritimes with general NW flow overhead.
A high pressure system over Southeast Canada will slowly shift south
into the Northeast US. This will push a backdoor cold front with a
general NE surface flow by Monday morning. As the high pressure
continues to slowly build north of the area, a persistent NE flow
will keep temperatures cooler than average for much of the area
through at least the middle of next week.
A few weak disturbances in the flow may approach the area from the
west by Tuesday or Wednesday. This may result in the possibility of
some shower development, mainly for the western portions of the
area, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will still be below
average with highs generally in the middle to upper 70s.
Global models are in decent agreement that by midweek the trough
over the Canadian Maritimes deepens a bit which amplifies the
surface ridge and high pressure over the area. By this time,
Hurricane Erin should be steering northward over the Western
Atlantic. The trough is expected to pull Erin northward and
accelerate it northeast and out to sea. For forecasts and updates on
Hurricane Erin, monitor the National Hurricane Center.
If high pressure remains in control through the end of the week, a
persistent easterly to northeasterly flow will continue for the end
of the week, providing for generally dry conditions with
temperatures remaining at or below average.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the north and east through the rest
of the TAF period.
VFR conditions initially with NE-SE flow near 5-10 kt. Winds
diminish tonight to near 5 kts or less.
Satellite imagery shows an area of stratus offshore that will move
back towards the area as winds begin to shift more onshore.
Probabilities for MVFR conditions are increasing, primarily at KJFK,
KISP, KEWR, and KTEB. The greatest uncertainty exists at KLGA, where
winds may remain more ENE overnight and keep any stratus to the
south of the field.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the day
mainly over NYC terminals and KSWF.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. However, chance of MVFR or lower briefly with
chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm afternoon into
evening.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower briefly in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet cond expected through the weekend, with seas no higher than 1
ft on the protected waters and no higher than 2 ft on the ocean
until late day Sunday, when a southerly Ambrose jet may build seas
to 3 ft on the ocean waters.
Wind gusts may approach near SCA conditions on the ocean Monday
under a NE flow with gusts approaching 25kt. Wave heights on the
ocean will be building as well with waves near 3-5 feet. By Tuesday,
increased swell from Erin is expected to raise wave heights to above
SCA conditions on the ocean through the remainder of the week,
possibly peaking at or above 10 feet by Thursday. Non-ocean zones
stay below SCA thresholds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A low rip current risk continues for the ocean beaches through
Saturday. Onshore SE winds will be less than 10 kt on Saturday,
with seas 2 ft at 8 sec generating surf no higher than 2 ft. A
stronger S/SW wind on Sunday up to 10-15kt along with increased
wave height toward afternoon will allow for a moderate risk of
rip currents.
There is potential for dangerous surf and rip currents next
week, mainly from Tuesday onward, as building long period swells
from Erin arrive. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion may
also become possible during this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MD
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...