374
FXUS61 KOKX 161433
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area this morning will shift off the
coast this afternoon, allowing a weak low pressure trough to
approach from the west late today. This trough should dissipate
tonight, then another pre-frontal trough will move into the
area on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
will pass through Sunday night, with high pressure building in
its wake from the north on Monday. This high will remain to the
north into mid week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin is forecast to
pass well offshore Wednesday night through early Friday. High
pressure returns to the local region thereafter from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low clouds will continue to scatter this morning as temperatures
rise. High temps in the lower/mid 80s in most places, maybe
some upper 80s in NE NJ and isolated spots in Orange/Rockland
farther away from any maritime influence as winds become SE-S.
There is the chance of a late day tstm with another passing
shortwave trough aloft mainly well north/west of NYC across
Orange/W Passaic and into Putnam/Rockland, but can`t rule out an
isolated shower or storm as far SE as the city and into
Westchester/Fairfield. This activity should die down early this
evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies lingering as a light
S flow continues. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s
in/around NYC, to the mid 60s in outlying areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A pre-frontal trough will develop over the area on Sunday in
advance of an approaching cold front, with hot and humid air
advecting into the area on a SW flow. High temps from NYC
north/west should reach the lower 90s, with heat index values as
high as the mid/upper 90s for one day. This air mass will also
be unstable, with MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg. This along with
0-3 km shear of about 20 m/s normal to the approaching front
could lead to an organized line of storms capable of producing
strong gusty winds. CSU-MLP continues to indicate a marginal svr
risk, with poor mid-level lapse rates a limiting factor.
The front will pass through Sunday night, with sfc high pressure
building from he north and an upper ridge gradually building
from the west, leading to dry conditions. Temps on Monday will
be cooler, with highs 75-80, and lows Mon night ranging from
the mid 50s well inland to the upper 60s in NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Followed NBM but did manually lower PoP toward/during mid week
and the winds were increased a small amount above NBM for the
mid week period.
NW upper level synoptic flow through the period. Mid level
trough Tuesday into Tuesday night and another one passing
through for Wednesday night. Then, a gradual resumption of
ridging and eventual zonal flow in mid levels Thursday through
Friday night.
At the surface, high pressure across the Canadian Maritimes
slowly slides farther out into the Atlantic Tuesday through
Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin is forecast to move
farther northwest within the western Atlantic waters and then
recurve out to sea for the Wednesday through Thursday
timeframe. This will tighten the pressure gradient between
residual high pressure to the northeast and Erin to the
southeast. For official forecasts on track and strength of Erin,
please refer to the National Hurricane Center.
Only Erin impacts anticipated locally are for the ocean and
adjacent shorelines related to high seas, dangerous surf and rip
currents, and possible minor coastal flooding and beach erosion.
Regarding precipitation, there are a few chances for showers in
the forecast. Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly for western and
interior areas and mainly for the Tuesday night into Wednesday
timeframe. Shower chances lower Wednesday night with mainly dry
conditions forecast Thursday and Friday.
Regarding temperatures, they are forecast to remain below normal
for Tuesday through Thursday and then return to near normal
values for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore high pressure weakens with a cold front approaching
early Sunday afternoon.
MVFR stratus remains at KHPN, KBDR, and KISP this morning, with
the stratus moving slowly east and becoming VFR 16Z to 18Z.
Otherwise VFR prevails at the terminals. A few showers could
develop north and west of NYC terminals, mainly for the
afternoon into early evening. There could be a shower or
thunderstorm near KSWF for mid afternoon into early evening with
PROB30 for TSRA.
Winds will be 10 kt or less through the TAF period. Wind
direction variable to southerly at night, and mainly southerly
during the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Could very well have more MVFR than forecast for tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Possible early MVFR stratus. Potential for MVFR or lower
with chances for showers and possible thunderstorms, afternoon
into evening. Otherwise, VFR. Possible SW wind gusts 15-20 kt
during the day, mainly during mid to late afternoon.
Monday: Slight chance of showers and MVFR. Otherwise, VFR. NE
winds G15-20kt during the day.
Tuesday: Possible showers and MVFR, mainly at night. E winds
G15-20 kt into early eve.
Wednesday: Possible showers and MVFR. E winds G15-20kt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet cond expected this weekend, with seas no higher than 1 ft
on the protected waters and no higher than 2 ft on the ocean
through daytime Sunday. Ocean seas may increase slightly to 2-3
ft Sunday night as SW flow increases to 10-15 kt and as the
first swells from Erin start to arrive. These swells could reach
5 ft on the outer ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet by Mon
afternoon, and become more widespread on the ocean Mon night.
For Tuesday through Wednesday night, SCA criteria easily met
for the ocean zones with seas trending higher as long period
swells build. Wind gusts forecast could reach 25 kt Wed into Wed
night. Most of the non ocean waters should remain below SCA
criteria except for Long Island Sound E of the mouth of the CT
River, where some higher seas up to 5 ft are forecast
Wed night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns attm.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low rip current risk continues for the ocean beaches today.
Onshore SE winds will be less than 10 kt, with 1-2 ft wind waves
and a 1-ft SE swell at 8-9 sec generating surf no higher than 2
ft. The risk should increase to moderate on Sunday, with a
stronger S-SW wind up to 10-15 kt with a longer period 2-ft SE
swell at 10 sec.
A moderate rip current risk anticipated for Monday, possibly
high risk at the ern Suffolk beaches. Thereafter there is
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents next week, mainly
from Tuesday onward, as building long period swells from Erin
arrive. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion may also become
possible during this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...