386
FXUS61 KOKX 171845
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
245 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A approaching cold front to the north and west moves through the
area tonight. High pressure builds in to the north Monday and
moves off the northern New England coast Tuesday. A weakening
frontal system approaches from the west Wednesday. The frontal
system and Hurricane Erin will pass well out into the Atlantic
on Thursday. High pressure will return by late week. Please
refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for further
information on Erin.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A warm and humid airmass remains across the region into this
evening, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front moves
into the northern portion of the region late this afternoon and
into early this evening. There is a marginal risk for isolated
severe thunderstorms with gusty winds the primary threat.
Surface and mixed layer CAPE ranges from 1000 to 2000 J/kg with
marginal surface instability. A limiting factor is weak low
level lapse rates. Precipitation ends with the passage of the
cold front, which moves well to the south by Monday morning as
Canadian high pressure builds to the north.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A much cooler and drier airmass builds into the region for
Monday through Tuesday, with a northeast to east flow, as high
pressure builds in from the north and eventually moves off the
northern New England coast. Dew points will be falling into the
50s across the region, and even into the 40s across a portion of
the region for Monday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure over New England and the Canadian Maritimes on
Tuesday night will weaken as mid-level troughing amplifies
overhead as a result of a weakening frontal system approaching
from the west and Hurricane Erin moving northward in the Western
Atlantic. Surface ridging looks to remain in place with the
frontal system stalling out to the west. As the frontal system
weakens, spotty showers are possible, mainly for western areas
on Wednesday and into Wednesday night.

By Thursday, Hurricane Erin absorbs whatever energy is left
from the decaying frontal system with the surface ridging
weakening. Since the area will be well to the north and west of
Hurricane Erin, the only sensible weather impact will be a brisk
NE flow with perhaps some gusts upwards of 30 mph along the
eastern coastline. No precipitation is expected as Hurricane
Erin passes by well to the southeast.

The only impacts from Hurricane Erin will be with the ocean and
ocean shorelines impacted by waves/swell. See marine and
tides/coastal flooding sections for more details. Please refer
to the National Hurricane Center on the latest forecasts on
Erin.

As Erin amplifies the downstream trough, a mid-level ridge
builds over the area in its wake. This will result in surface
high pressure quickly moving in behind it on Friday. This will
bring clear skies and dry conditions with a flow shifting from N
Friday morning to S by Friday afternoon. The shift in flow will
allow temperatures to rise back to normal levels Friday as well
as a subtle increase in moisture. Another frontal system may
approach the area from the west toward next weekend but details
as to timing and coverage of any precipitation is still
uncertain at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves through the terminals late this afternoon
through tonight.

VFR most of today. MVFR or perhaps briefly lower conditions are
possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly late afternoon
into tonight, around 21Z to 03Z. Confidence is a bit higher for
NYC terminals, KHPN and KSWF than the eastern terminals.
Showers remain in the vicinity late tonight into early Monday
with MVFR cigs expected. VFR returns mid to late Monday morning.

S/SW winds around 10-13 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this
afternoon. These relatively higher winds and wind gusts last
into early this evening before decreasing briefly and
eventually shifting to more of a northerly direction late. Winds
pick back up late tonight into early Monday to near 10-15 kt
and gusts 20-25 kt. Winds gradually diminish through Monday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of thunderstorms could be off by 1-2 hours from TAF.

Gusts may be more occasional today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: MVFR with diminishing gusts.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a slight chance of
showers.

Thursday: MVFR. NE wind gusts around 20-25 kt.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the forecast
waters beginning late tonight. With the passage of a cold front
north to northeast winds are expected to gust to 25 to 30 kt,
and continue into Monday morning. There is a chance that gusts
on the western waters will be marginal and may not reach 25 kt,
as the trend has been for lower gusts. However, will leave the
advisory as previously issued. Winds and gusts diminish during
Monday afternoon, falling below advisory levels. However, ocean
seas will remain elevated with the persistent northeast flow. In
addition, swells from distant Hurricane Erin will begin to
arrive late day and contribute to the elevated seas, which will
continue into later in the week. The SCA on the ocean waters was
extended through Tuesday, and will likely be extended with
later forecasts as an extended period of SCA conditions are
expected for the ocean, and also the sound E of Orient Point,
with swells from Erin and eventually gusts 25-30 kt on the ocean
on Thursday as Erin passes well to the SE. Peak ocean seas are
forecast from late Wednesday night through Friday morning, in
excess of 10 ft and reaching 12-16 ft out east. Please refer to
National Hurricane Center forecasts for further information on
Erin.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for rip currents should increase to moderate today,
with a stronger S-SW wind up to 10-15 kt with a longer period
2-ft SE swell at 10 sec.

A moderate rip current risk is forecast for Monday though it was
borderline high risk due to increasing swell and waves toward
the afternoon.

There is potential for dangerous surf and rip currents from Tue
onward, as building long period swells from Erin arrive.
Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion may also become
possible during this time. Bias-corrected STOFS guidance
indicates only localized minor flooding, but departures 1/2 ft
higher than fcst (reasonable worst case) could lead to more
widespread minor flooding with the Thu night high tide cycle.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-
     335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ332-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...